Developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation, it has since become a widely-used tool in various fields, including business, healthcare, and project management. The method aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on complex issues, particularly those that involve uncertainty and subjective judgment—making it ideal for risk assessment.

In the Delphi method, the process begins by selecting a group of experts knowledgeable in the relevant field. These experts are then asked to provide their opinions or assessments independently and anonymously, usually through questionnaires. This anonymity helps reduce the influence of dominant individuals and groupthink, which can skew results in traditional group settings.

The responses from the experts are collected, analyzed, and summarized by a facilitator or moderator. In subsequent rounds, the experts are given the opportunity to revise their opinions based on the aggregated feedback from the previous round. This iterative process is repeated until a consensus or stable outcome is reached, which typically occurs after two to four rounds.

The Delphi method is particularly useful in risk assessment because it allows for the pooling of expert knowledge to identify and evaluate potential risks. These risks can be anything from market uncertainties to operational failures or even external environmental threats. Through the iterative process, the panel refines its understanding of the risks, prioritizing them based on likelihood and impact.

One of the key strengths of the Delphi method is its ability to handle complex, ambiguous problems where data may be limited or non-existent. Instead of relying solely on historical data or predictive models, it leverages human expertise and judgment, making it adaptable to various contexts.

However, the method is not without its limitations. It can be time-consuming due to the multiple rounds required, and the quality of the results is highly dependent on the selection of experts. Additionally, there is a potential for bias in the way questions are framed or in how responses are summarized by the facilitator.

Despite these challenges, the Delphi method remains a valuable tool for risk assessment, especially in areas where uncertainty is high and expert judgment is crucial.

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